WHERE ARE THE YOUNG?

When I was in graduate school in the early ‘70's, zero population growth was the secular religion of the day. Parents with big families were accused of polluting the earth. Paul Erlich and his environmentalist friends couldn’t have been more wrong.

In the 70's who knew:

* that the western world with all its cultural and economic advantages would choose career, lifestyle, and consumption over children and family life?

* that the women’s revolution, sexual revolution (contraception), cohabitation, and divorce revolution would result in fewer marriages, later marriages, fewer children, and more unstable and broken families?

* that individualism, cultural relativism, self-absorption, and narcissism would erode traditional religious and family values in pursuit of freedom, consumption, travel, personal growth, and comfort?

* that popular culture, the media, and the advertising world would incessantly promote ego-driven instant gratification and individualism while portraying children as expensive burdens and that marital commitment or parenthood are unnecessary to the fun of sex?

* that having a replacement birthrate was and is the key to sustainable economies?

We have come full circle. The biggest problem facing western economies today is not overpopulation, but that there is not enough people to sustain their growth. Why? According to demographers, beginning around 2050 world population will start a steep, irreversible, exponential decline.

Why? Because of something happening right now under our noses. Ninety countries currently have sub-replacement birth rates well below 2.1 children per woman. When a country has below 1.3 children per woman, it will lose half of its population every 45 years.

Demographers say 1.3 births per couple is the “lowest-low” fertility rate from which no human society has ever recovered. Even in overcrowded places like Japan (1.23), the economy is tottering under the weight of their geriatric population and minuscule birthrates.

Russia has a birthrate of 1.14 in a country with a huge land mass and sparse populations as it is. Eastern European countries are close behind with comparable declining birthrates.

Catholic countries of Spain (1.15), Italy (1.23) and Greece (1.3) where large families were once the norm have voted with their personal lives not to have children, and their economies suffer. The birthrates for France (1.89), Germany (1.35), Canada (1.48), and the United Kingdom (1.6) are inflated by the birthrates of their large populations of Muslim immigrants.

The United States enjoys 2.11 live births per woman, just at the replacement fertility rate for a stable population. This figure is inflated by the birthrates of Hispanic immigrants who will become the majority population by 2050.

“The on-going global decline in human birthrates is the most single powerful force affecting the fate of nations and the future of society in the 21^st century.” - Philip Longman, American demographer

What will be the effects of population decline? Economies need workers and consumers. There are no instances of economic growth accompanied by population decline. The result will be a far bleaker and chaotic environment than any doomsayer environmentalist could conjure up.

There will be political, economic, and social disruption. The competition for scant resources will be extreme.

Our grandchildren will mature into a lonely, aging world bereft of siblings, cousins, aunts, and uncles. There will be far more grandparents and parents than there are children. The comforts and security of marriage and family life will be elusive for those too wary of its obligations. Not enough children will grow up in families where they learn morality, cooperation, and trust.

There will be no golden age for retirees because there will not be enough workers to sustain them. Taxes will be onerous. In the near term, real estate markets will absorb a glut of expensive bigger homes as baby boomers downsize into retirement in a shrinking market of new buyers.

Education will be a premium as workers will have to work harder and smarter just to maintain economic viability.

Hope for the future. I was present when a leader in holistic resource management inspected a landscape that to the untrained eye looked beautiful and productive. He knelt to the ground, brushed his hand around, and said, “Where are the young?”

There were no seedlings, no new life, no succession, no rising generation of trees, bushes and grasses to replace the old, stately growth. What looked so rich was actually barren.

He was echoing a Darwinian truism, “A species not reproducing itself is maladapted to its environment.”

Adolescent self-absorption extends well into the 30s. Young people engage in premarital sex, delay marriage, live together without commitment, delay childbirth, or choose not to marry or be parents at all. Their reproductive heritage will shrink with each succeeding generation.

We need to have a counter-cultural movement to counteract media, affluence, and pop culture. These forces glorify wealth, self-gratification, and career achievement at the expense of forming new families.

We need a pro-life, pro-family agenda of valuing marriage, motherhood, fatherhood, children, and family values. We need to value and defend our religious values, traditional marriage, and morality.

People of faith. The families who will thrive in 2050 and beyond will be people of faith. They will be the children and grandchildren of married couples today with strong religious convictions and traditional morality.

They are the ones who through their lives of optimism, dedication, and sacrifice will bring children into the world and nurture them properly. Their children will be the ones to resist the blandishments of self in favor of stable marriages and having children of their own. Their faith and values will protect them. They are the ones who will inherit the earth.

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	About Dr. Farmer Why this Website?Table of Contents Books Contact Dr. Farmer
	Val Farmer 35 Years of Counseling Rural Topics IV. Rural Life 4. Rural Economic Development WHERE ARE THE YOUNG? When I was in graduate school in the early ‘70's, zero population growth was the secular religion of the day. Parents with big families were accused of polluting the earth. Paul Erlich and his environmentalist friends couldn’t have been more wrong. In the 70's who knew: * that the western world with all its cultural and economic advantages would choose career, lifestyle, and consumption over children and family life? * that the women’s revolution, sexual revolution (contraception), cohabitation, and divorce revolution would result in fewer marriages, later marriages, fewer children, and more unstable and broken families? * that individualism, cultural relativism, self-absorption, and narcissism would erode traditional religious and family values in pursuit of freedom, consumption, travel, personal growth, and comfort? * that popular culture, the media, and the advertising world would incessantly promote ego-driven instant gratification and individualism while portraying children as expensive burdens and that marital commitment or parenthood are unnecessary to the fun of sex? * that having a replacement birthrate was and is the key to sustainable economies? We have come full circle. The biggest problem facing western economies today is not overpopulation, but that there is not enough people to sustain their growth. Why? According to demographers, beginning around 2050 world population will start a steep, irreversible, exponential decline. Why? Because of something happening right now under our noses. Ninety countries currently have sub-replacement birth rates well below 2.1 children per woman. When a country has below 1.3 children per woman, it will lose half of its population every 45 years. Demographers say 1.3 births per couple is the “lowest-low” fertility rate from which no human society has ever recovered. Even in overcrowded places like Japan (1.23), the economy is tottering under the weight of their geriatric population and minuscule birthrates. Russia has a birthrate of 1.14 in a country with a huge land mass and sparse populations as it is. Eastern European countries are close behind with comparable declining birthrates. Catholic countries of Spain (1.15), Italy (1.23) and Greece (1.3) where large families were once the norm have voted with their personal lives not to have children, and their economies suffer. The birthrates for France (1.89), Germany (1.35), Canada (1.48), and the United Kingdom (1.6) are inflated by the birthrates of their large populations of Muslim immigrants. The United States enjoys 2.11 live births per woman, just at the replacement fertility rate for a stable population. This figure is inflated by the birthrates of Hispanic immigrants who will become the majority population by 2050. “The on-going global decline in human birthrates is the most single powerful force affecting the fate of nations and the future of society in the 21^st century.” - Philip Longman, American demographer What will be the effects of population decline? Economies need workers and consumers. There are no instances of economic growth accompanied by population decline. The result will be a far bleaker and chaotic environment than any doomsayer environmentalist could conjure up. There will be political, economic, and social disruption. The competition for scant resources will be extreme. Our grandchildren will mature into a lonely, aging world bereft of siblings, cousins, aunts, and uncles. There will be far more grandparents and parents than there are children. The comforts and security of marriage and family life will be elusive for those too wary of its obligations. Not enough children will grow up in families where they learn morality, cooperation, and trust. There will be no golden age for retirees because there will not be enough workers to sustain them. Taxes will be onerous. In the near term, real estate markets will absorb a glut of expensive bigger homes as baby boomers downsize into retirement in a shrinking market of new buyers. Education will be a premium as workers will have to work harder and smarter just to maintain economic viability. Hope for the future. I was present when a leader in holistic resource management inspected a landscape that to the untrained eye looked beautiful and productive. He knelt to the ground, brushed his hand around, and said, “Where are the young?” There were no seedlings, no new life, no succession, no rising generation of trees, bushes and grasses to replace the old, stately growth. What looked so rich was actually barren. He was echoing a Darwinian truism, “A species not reproducing itself is maladapted to its environment.” Adolescent self-absorption extends well into the 30s. Young people engage in premarital sex, delay marriage, live together without commitment, delay childbirth, or choose not to marry or be parents at all. Their reproductive heritage will shrink with each succeeding generation. We need to have a counter-cultural movement to counteract media, affluence, and pop culture. These forces glorify wealth, self-gratification, and career achievement at the expense of forming new families. We need a pro-life, pro-family agenda of valuing marriage, motherhood, fatherhood, children, and family values. We need to value and defend our religious values, traditional marriage, and morality. People of faith. The families who will thrive in 2050 and beyond will be people of faith. They will be the children and grandchildren of married couples today with strong religious convictions and traditional morality. They are the ones who through their lives of optimism, dedication, and sacrifice will bring children into the world and nurture them properly. Their children will be the ones to resist the blandishments of self in favor of stable marriages and having children of their own. Their faith and values will protect them. They are the ones who will inherit the earth.